Abiding by the endorsement — the gender factor
Via Eric Black, in a list of who will and will not abide by the DFL endorsement for governor, he puzzled out what he calls the “gender factor”:
The gender factor
It may also be noteworthy that the two women currently seeking (in the case of Gaertner, who has been a declared candidate for many months) or planning to seek (in the case of Kelliher) the nomination have made firm pledges to abide.It is widely assumed, and for good reason, that whatever happens at the convention, Dayton and Entenza will be running in the primary. If the endorsee is neither of them but is a male, that would put a three-man field in the primary. Minnesota has never had a woman as governor, nor even as a major-party nominee for governor. There are certainly activists and donors, in Minnesota and nationally, who would be anxious to see that streak broken. A primary pitting one female candidate against three males would bring some favorable math into the picture for the woman.
Gaertner is generally not rated as a top-five candidate for endorsement, but Kelliher is. If she wins the endorsement, she will presumably face at least two wealthy male candidates who plan to run in the primary and perhaps others. In that scenario, the gender math would work in her favor, as well as the advantages of being the endorsee. By pledging to abide, she presumably increases her chance of being the endorsee. But by pledging to abide, she also forgoes the opportunity to potentially enter a primary without the endorsement but in a lineup that could be favorable to lone female against two or three or even more men.
I believe that Eric is likely right — in a three-way race between Dayton, Entenza and Anderson-Kelliher, she would be very hard to stop, as Dayton and Entenza would have a lot in common in regards not just to gender, but also the impression they would make on voters with predominately self-financed campaigns.
But I’m not sure it would still be the same if she did not get the endorsement, assuming there was another candidate who did get it. As we learned from watching the 5th CD primary in 2006, the more people who enter the primary, the more important the endorsement becomes. Erlandson thought his connections and money could get him through despite Ellison’s endorsement, but he and Ostrow never got very far on primary night. And despite being the only woman in the race, Ember Reichgott Junge only ended up with I think 20% overall. Without the primary endorsement, it really is in her best interest to stay as speaker for now, rather than challenge the endorsee in a primary.
Of course, if there is no endorsement, I think all bets will be off for everyone..,.
